How Does Neighborhood Fertility Support Policy Shape Fertility Intentions?: Evidence from a Multi-Level Analysis in South Korea

Background: Despite the South Korean government’s expansion of various fertility promotion incentives, the overall fertility rate continues to decline, currently the lowest worldwide. Also, while Korea’s overall fertility policy framework is pro-natalist, local governments implement diverse policy incentives. There are regional variations in fertility rates, suggesting the need for a better understanding of how macro-level environments shape individual’s fertility desires. Prior research shows that the effectiveness of fertility promotion policies remains unclear, with mixed evidence in different global contexts. Thus, this study examines the relationship between fertility support policies and fertility intentions among young adults in Korea, with the expectation that our findings will inform ongoing policy efforts.

Method: The study merges two datasets: (1) neighborhood-level fertility support policies from the 2023 Local Government Fertility Support Policy Casebook and (2) individual-level survey data from young adults (ages 19–39) in Korea. The individual-level survey was conducted online from January 30 to February 5, 2024. In total, 1,001 young adults completed the survey. The dependent variable, fertility intentions, was a binary measure indicating whether participants intended to have a child (1=yes, 0=no). Fertility support policies were categorized into three types: cash benefits (e.g. congratulatory childbirth grants, postpartum care subsidies), in-kind assistance (tangible childrearing and caregiving items), and vouchers (redeemable at local small businesses or for childbirth-related purchases). We created three dichotomous variables to measure whether a neighborhood offered each type of support. We conducted a multilevel logistic regression to examine neighborhood fertility support policies and individuals’ fertility intentions, controlling for sociodemographic characteristics (sex, age, educational attainment, and relationship status), economic status (employment status, income, assets, debt, and homeownership), and personal values regarding marriage and childrearing (perceptions of the importance of marriage and of childbirth/having a child). We used Stata 18.0 for all analyses.

Results: The sample was nearly evenly split by sex (49.95% male and 50.05% female) with the average age was 29.77 years (SD = 5.59). Approximately 53% of participants expressed willingness to have children. Living in neighborhoods offering cash benefits was significantly associated with a higher likelihood of intending to have a child (OR = 1.52, p <.05). Living in neighborhoods offering vouchers was associated with a lower willingness to have children (OR = 0.64, p <.05). In-kind assistance was not significantly associated with fertility intentions. Fertility intentions was significantly associated with age (OR = 0.92, p <.001), educational attainment (OR = 1.52, p <.05), and their personal values regarding the importance of marriage (OR = 2.61, p <.001) and children in their lives (OR = 2.75, p <.001).

Conclusion/Implications: Our study is among the first to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between fertility support policies and fertility intentions in Korea. The findings highlight the role of direct financial support in shaping fertility desires while questioning the effectiveness of other forms of incentives. This study calls for a critical role of social workers in designing comprehensive policies that address structural barriers to marriage and childrearing and creating supportive environments.