Fertility Rates, Family Policies, and Gender-Role Attitudes: A Comparative Analysis of Japan, Sweden and the United States

Background and Purpose:
Record-low birth rates in the U.S. in 2023 have drawn the attention of policymakers, researchers, and the public. Low fertility rates have been a social policy concern in many developed countries for decades. A puzzling question is how changes in gender attitudes over recent decades relate to the development of family policies and fertility trends.

In this study, we examine fertility rates and gender attitude trends in the U.S., Sweden, and Japan from 1990 to 2020 by analyzing country-level statistics and World Values Survey(WVS) data. We explore the nuanced, multidimensional changes in gender attitudes in the U.S., in comparison to Sweden and Japan. We selected three countries—Sweden (a Nordic welfare state), the U.S. (a liberal regime), and Japan (a non-Western nation)—as illustrative cases representing different welfare state models.

Methods:
We used OECD family data on fertility and family policies between 1980 and 2023, along with WVS time-series data, to capture societal gender attitudes during the past four decades. Descriptive statistical analysis and country-specific case studies of family policies were conducted. We selected survey questions reflecting individuals’ views on women’s roles in the workforce and at home, ensuring they were consistently asked across three countries during the study period. In the WVS, respondents were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with statements such as: “When jobs are scarce, men should have more right to a job than women,” “A woman has to have children in order to be fulfilled”, and “Being a housewife is just as fulfilling as working for pay”.

Results:
We find evidence of fertility fluctuations in Sweden (2.14 in 1990, 1.5 in 1999, 1.93 in 2010, and 1.45 in 2023), consistent fertility decline in Japan (1.54 in 1990, 1.26 in 2005, and 1.20 in 2023), and relatively higher yet declining fertility in the U.S. (2.08 in 1990, 1.93 in 2010, and 1.62 in 2023). Drawing on the concept of multidimensional gender-role attitudes (i.e. male primacy, gender essentialism, support to paid job and family role, freedom of choice), we analyzed key survey questions from WVS. The results indicate an overall shift away from traditional gender views in the three countries, however gender attitudes toward egalitarianism remain diverse and multidimensional. Findings suggest that Sweden shows a model of liberal egalitarianism, the U.S. as flexible egalitarianism with an emphasis on freedom of choice, and Japan appears to be at a crossroad to choose a path to gender egalitarianism.

Conclusions and Implications:
While societies have generally moved away from traditional gender-role attitudes, different models of gender egalitarianism have emerged. Countries like Sweden and Japan offer valuable comparative cases to address the U.S. situation. In the diverse U.S. context, various socioeconomic, racial and ethnic, immigration, and cultural factors may shape gender attitudes and fertility behaviors. Policymakers should consider creating flexible spaces and policy options that support the realization of gender equality, which may, in turn, influence fertility decisions.