Understanding Black-White Disparities in Illinois Child Welfare: A Socioeconomic Explanation

Background/Purpose

We examined two questions. First, given that the child maltreatment report (CMR) rate among Black children in Illinois is twice that of White children, we assessed whether this disparity is primarily driven by racial bias among reporters or by differential exposure to socioeconomic disadvantage (Question 1). If racial bias were the main driver, race should remain significant after controlling for socioeconomic conditions. Conversely, if socioeconomic disadvantage were the primary factor, the disparity should largely disappear after adjustment. Second, we examined racial differences in Illinois Child Protective Services (CPS) decisions and services, to assess whether Black children experience more severe CPS responses or poorer outcomes than White children (Question 2).

Methods

For Question 1, we conducted tract-level linear regressions comparing Black and White CMR rates across Illinois census tracts in 2021, controlling for poverty and single-parent family rates. For Question 2, we ran two sets of individual-level logistic regressions. The first set examined racial differences in CPS investigation decisions—substantiation, Intact Family Services (IFS) opening, and foster care (FC) entry—as well as re-involvement within two years (rereport, future IFS, future FC entry), among children reported in 2021. The second set analyzed racial differences in FC services among all children who entered FC in 2021.

Results

For Question 1, the unadjusted Black CMR rate was 39.8 per 1,000 higher—about twice the White rate. However, after adjusting for poverty and single-parent family rates, the Black CMR rate was 8.8 per 1,000 lower, indicating that the disparity is primarily explained by socioeconomic conditions rather than racial bias. For Question 2, among reported children, substantiation and rereport rates showed no meaningful racial differences. In fact, Black children had 6%-16% lower odds of immediate and future IFS opening or FC entry. Among children entering FC, Black children were 60% more likely to experience more than three placement disruptions per year, but also 25% more likely to be initially placed with relatives or kin, 5% less likely to be placed over 20 miles away from family, 26% less likely to experience termination of parental rights, and 34% more likely to achieve permanency within two years, compared to White children.

Conclusions/Implications

The Black-White disparity in CMRs appears primarily attributable to differential exposure to socioeconomic disadvantage—not racial bias. However, the findings raise important concerns about the racialized nature of poverty. After accounting for socioeconomic conditions, Black children had lower report rates than White children. CPS decisions/services were also generally not more punitive toward Black children and were often more favorable. These findings highlight two key implications. First, reducing racial disparities in CMRs and CPS involvement requires broader, upstream efforts to address the root socioeconomic inequalities that shape child maltreatment risk, rather than focusing narrowly on reforms within CPS. Second, public narratives attributing disparities primarily to racial bias within CPS should be reconsidered, as they may obscure the more systemic, socioeconomic roots of maltreatment risk and divert attention from prevention-oriented policy reforms needed to support families more equitably, while acknowledging the racialized nature of poverty.