Lifetime Prevalence of Child Maltreatment Reports, Substantiations, Intact Family Services, and Foster Care in Illinois

Background/Purpose

While annual prevalence is essential for tracking short-term trends and guiding immediate policy responses, cumulative prevalence provides a more comprehensive, long-term view of the scope and impact of child maltreatment and Child Protective Services (CPS) involvement. Estimating cumulative prevalence can better inform policy decisions, resource allocation, and interventions aimed at preventing maltreatment and mitigating lifelong consequences. A recent study projected that 44% of Illinois children would experience at least one child maltreatment report (CMR) by age 18. However, this striking estimate may be inflated due to duplicate identifiers—instances where a child is mistakenly assigned multiple IDs—leading to double-counting. We examined and reconciled potential duplicates in Illinois CPS records using Social Security Numbers (SSNs) to generate scientifically rigorous estimates of cumulative prevalence for CMRs, substantiations, Intact Family Services (IFS), and foster care (FC).

Methods

We employed a synthetic life table method to estimate the cumulative probability that a child would experience each CPS event by age 18, assuming exposure to age-specific first-time event risks observed in 2023. To prevent overestimation, we excluded children with prior events by tracing longitudinal CPS records back to birth. To address duplicate identifier issues, we used SSNs—available for about one-third of children—to identify and reconcile duplicates. For children without SSNs, we adjusted first-time event risks by aligning them with those of children with SSNs based on characteristics such as CPS involvement level, age, and race/ethnicity.

Results

Before addressing duplicates, the lifetime prevalence of CMRs was nearly 50%. After adjustment, the projected lifetime prevalence was 26.7% for CMRs, 13% for substantiations, 5.3% for IFS, and 3.6% for FC. By maltreatment type, the estimated lifetime prevalence was 20.2% for neglect reports, 13.4% for physical abuse reports, and 6.5% for sexual abuse reports. By race/ethnicity, Black children had the highest lifetime prevalence, with 52.8% projected to experience a CMR, 27.1% a substantiation, 9.9% IFS, and 7.2% FC. White children were projected at 22.3% for CMRs, 11.1% for substantiations, 5.2% for IFS, and 3.7% for FC. Latino children were projected at 22.2% for CMRs, 9.3% for substantiations, 3.7% for IFS, and 1.7% for FC.

Conclusions/Implications

This study underscores the importance of addressing duplicate identifiers in CPS records to produce accurate estimates of cumulative prevalence. After accounting for duplicates, the cumulative probability of experiencing a CMR by age 18 was reduced by nearly half. Nevertheless, the adjusted estimates remain alarmingly high. More than one in four Illinois children are projected to have a CMR by age 18, over one in eight will have a substantiation, one in 19 will receive IFS, and one in 28 will enter FC. For Black children, the figures are particularly concerning, with over half expected to experience a CMR and more than a quarter a substantiation. These findings suggest that it may be time to reform CPS to be substantially less punitive and more supportive. They also point to the urgent need to do everything possible to prevent child maltreatment and reduce the likelihood of severe CPS involvement.