From Reports to Permanency: How Poverty Shapes Child Welfare Involvement in Illinois

Background/Purpose

Child maltreatment reports (CMRs) and involvement with Child Protective Services (CPS) are disproportionately concentrated in socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. While prior research has established a strong link between poverty and child maltreatment, less is known about how poverty shapes CPS decision-making and service outcomes. This study examines the relationship between neighborhood poverty and multiple stages of CPS involvement in Illinois—including CMRs, investigation outcomes, re-involvement, foster care (FC) placement practices, termination of parental rights (TPR), and permanency outcomes.

Methods

Because CPS records lack direct socioeconomic data, we linked CPS records to children’s residential census tracts and used tract-level poverty rates. Analyses included: (1) tract-level linear regression of poverty, single-parent family rates, and median house values on CMR rates across Illinois census tracts in 2021; (2) individual-level logistic regression examining associations between tract poverty and CPS investigation outcomes (substantiation, Intact Family Services [IFS] opening, and FC entry), as well as re-involvement within two years (re-reports, future IFS, and future FC entry) among all Illinois children reported to CPS in 2021; and (3) individual-level logistic regression assessing the relationship between tract poverty and FC services/outcomes—initial relative/kinship placement, placement distance (>20 miles from family), placement disruption (three or more moves per year), TPR, and permanency (reunification, guardianship, or adoption) within two years—among all Illinois children who entered FC in 2021.

Results

Tract poverty was strongly associated with CMR rates: a 20-percentage-point increase in tract poverty predicted 46 additional CMRs per 1,000 children. Tract poverty alone explained 28% of the variation in CMR rates; tract poverty, single-parent rates, and median house values together explained 45%. Tract poverty was also significantly associated with CPS investigation decisions and re-involvement. A 20-percentage-point increase in tract poverty was linked to a 20% increase in substantiations, a 15% increase in immediate FC entry, a 5% increase in re-reports, and a 14% increase in future IFS openings, and a 20% increase in future FC entries. Among children who entered FC, higher tract poverty (+20-percentage-point) was associated with more frequent relative/kinship placements (+16%) and fewer placement disruptions (−14%). Tract poverty was not significantly associated with placement distance or TPR. However, a 20-percentage-point increase in tract poverty was linked to an 18% decrease in achieving permanency within two years.

Conclusions/Implications

Neighborhood poverty significantly shapes CPS involvement across the child welfare continuum—from reports to long-term outcomes. Children in high-poverty areas face greater system contact and deeper involvement, though patterns such as increased relative/kinship placements and reduced placement disruptions suggest resilience and strengths within these communities. Nevertheless, lower rates of permanency raise concerns about long-term stability and equity. Findings underscore the need for place-based strategies and structural interventions that address poverty as a root driver of child maltreatment and subsequent CPS involvement, and invest in prevention and community supports to reduce system reliance and improve long-term stability for families.