Does Head Start Create Lasting Benefits in Disadvantaged Children? Revisiting Deming (2009) with Additional Cnlsy Data

Background and Purpose. Head Start was launched in 1965 as part of the “War on Poverty” and, by 2019, served over one million children annually with a budget of $10 billion (Bailey et al., 2021). Although a substantial body of research documents the program’s short-term benefits, questions remain about its long-term impact. Deming (2009) evaluated long-term outcomes for Head Start participants across several domains—including academic achievement, high school graduation, criminal behavior, employment, and health—using data through 2004. By then, the youngest cohort in the sample had reached age 19, an age sufficient for assessing adolescent and early adult outcomes such as high school graduation, college attempt, criminal involvement, and health status. However, outcomes like college completion and adult criminal behavior were less fully observed, as disadvantaged youth may delay postsecondary enrollment, and criminal records often emerge later in adulthood. These data limitations underscore the need to revisit Deming’s analysis with more recent data—a gap this study seeks to address.

Methods. Building on Deming’s 2009 paper, Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start, this study extends the analysis using an additional 16 years of data from the National Longitudinal Mother-Child Supplement (CNLSY). CNLSY follows all children born to female respondents from the NLSY79 cohort, with biannual surveys conducted between 1986 and 2014. This panel structure enables sibling comparisons using a family fixed-effects approach. We focus on families with children over age four by 1990, comparing siblings who differed in Head Start participation to estimate effects on long-term outcomes, particularly focusing on higher education enrollment, criminal behavior, and health status.

Results. This study finds that Head Start participants are 11 percentage points more likely to enroll in college than their non-participating siblings—nearly doubling the 6 percentage point gain observed in Deming’s original study for college attempt. Gains in health status also persist in the extended follow-up, reinforcing prior findings. In contrast, effects on criminal behavior remain statistically insignificant.

Implications. These findings suggest that the long-term benefits of Head Start not only persist but may grow stronger over time. By documenting sustained gains in education and health, this study adds to the body of evidence supporting Head Start as an effective and worthwhile investment for improving life outcomes among disadvantaged children.