A Cross-Country Investigation in Working Life Expectancies: Work and Gender Differences

Background and Purpose: Promoting long and productive working lives is one of the grand challenges in social work and a growing global concern, especially as most societies face population aging. In this context, understanding working life expectancy (WLE)—the average number of years a person is expected to work—can offer important policy insights for supporting and extending working life. However, WLE is influenced by labor force participation, retirement policies, and gendered norms. Estimating WLE across diverse contexts can improve the understanding of how these dynamics contribute to variations in working lives. This study extends the current evidence by examining whether and how WLE varies by gender, employment type, and country contexts using nationally representative data from four large economies with distinct welfare systems: the United States, China, Mexico, and Brazil.

Methods: We used four highly comparable, harmonized datasets from the 2015-2016 waves of the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, the Mexican Health and Aging Study, and the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Aging. We employed the Sullivan Method to estimate WLE by gender and labor force participation (self-employment, waged employment, retired, not working).

Results: At age 50, a person in the U.S. expects to live an additional 31.5 years. In comparison, life expectancy at the same age is around 29-30 years in China, Brazil, and Mexico. WLE, excluding self-employment, is highest in the U.S., where a 50-year-old can expect to work for 12.9 years (equivalent of 40.9% of their remaining life). In contrast, Brazil has the lowest estimate—2.9 years (9.7%). When focusing on self-employment, China stands out with the highest duration, 8.8 years or 30.2% of their remaining life. Mexico follows with 5.2 years (17.3%), while the U.S. has the lowest estimate at 3.0 years (9.4%). Retirement expectancy is notably low in Mexico at 3.7 years (12.23%), but exceeds 40% (12.4-13.9 years) of individuals' remaining lives in other countries. Mexico and Brazil have the highest expected non-working years—14.6 years (48.8%) and 9.9 years (33.5%), respectively. Men are expected to work longer than women in all countries. Except for China, where estimates are similar, men are also expected to work longer in self-employment. On the other hand, women—except in Mexico—have higher retirement expectancy. In Mexico and Brazil, women spend more years not working than men.

Conclusions and Implications: The findings highlight country and gender patterns in work and retirement at older ages. In the U.S., older adults are mostly either working or retired, while in Brazil, many—especially women—are out of the labor force. In Mexico, men often remain in paid or self-employment, while most women do not work. In China, older adults are either retired or still working, often self-employed. High self-employment in China and Mexico points to weaker social protection systems, while the U.S. shows the need for age-friendly worklplace policies. Gender disparities, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, call for inclusive reforms to support for unpaid caregivers, expand employment opportunities for women, and strenghten retirement protections.