Experience As Preparedness: Disaster History and Emergency Confidence Among Older Adults in the U.S

Background/Purpose
Older adults can be more vulnerable during disasters due to potential mobility limitations, chronic health conditions, and systemic barriers in emergency planning. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that by 2034, adults aged 65 and older will outnumber children under 18 in the U.S. for the first time in history (AARP, 2022), signaling a national demographic shift with important implications for emergency preparedness. Confidence in one’s ability to prepare for disasters is a valuable predictor of actual preparedness behaviors, yet little is known about how this confidence is shaped in older populations (Bell et al., 2020). This study examines whether prior disaster experience predicts greater confidence in disaster preparedness among adults aged 60 and older using national survey data. We hypothesized that older adults with prior disaster experiences would report higher levels of preparedness confidence than those without prior experience.

Methods

This study used secondary data from the 2023 FEMA National Household Survey, a nationally representative dataset assessing preparedness behaviors and attitudes. The analytic sample included respondents aged 60 years or older (n = 2,194), and survey weights were applied for population-level generalizability. Key variables included disaster experience (1 = Yes, 0 = No) and confidence in disaster preparedness (1–5 Likert scale). Descriptive statistics were conducted to characterize the sample by race/ethnicity, sex, income, education, disability, U.S. Census region, and household primary language. An independent samples t-test assessed differences in confidence scores based on disaster experience, followed by a simple linear regression model estimating the strength and direction of the association between disaster experience and preparedness confidence.

Results
Approximately 47.2% of older adults in the sample reported having experienced a disaster. The t-test showed a statistically significant difference in preparedness confidence between older adults with and without disaster experience, t(2107.63) = -7.00, p < .001, with those who had experienced a disaster reporting higher confidence (M = 3.76, SD = 0.96 vs. M = 3.45, SD = 1.04; 95% CI for mean difference [-0.39, -0.22]). Consistent with our hypothesis, linear regression findings indicated a significant relationship between disaster experience and preparedness confidence (B = .305, SE = .044, β = .150, p < .001), with disaster experience explaining 2.3% of the variance in preparedness confidence (R² = .023).

Conclusions
Adults aged 60 and older with prior disaster experience report greater confidence in their ability to prepare for future emergencies, suggesting that previous experience may support disaster-related self-efficacy. This aligns with Bandura’s theory that mastery experiences are key to strengthening confidence in future performance (Bandura, 1997). Findings support the development of strengths-based interventions focused on increasing older adults’ preparedness confidence through exposure-informed programs. Furthermore, findings contribute to health promotion efforts by supporting interventions that empower older adults to prevent disaster-related health crises. Social workers should consider integrating experiential learning, peer-led education, or storytelling approaches from disaster survivors into preparedness efforts for older adult populations. Future research should examine how intersectional factors such as disability, language, and systemic inequities including race, gender, and income moderate preparedness outcomes.