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Achieving permanency through reunification, guardianship, or adoption is a primary goal of the child welfare system. However, some youth who achieve permanency later reenter foster care, raising concerns about the factors contributing to these disruptions. Reentries are particularly common among adolescents, making it critical to understand the prevalence and factors associated with reentry to inform policies and practices that better support adolescents and families after achieving permanency. This study examines the prevalence of reentry among adolescents who exited to permanency and identifies associated factors. We address two key research questions: (1) What proportion of adolescents reenter foster care after exiting to permanency? and (2) What adolescent and case characteristics are associated with reentry?
Methods
This study utilizes population-level data from California’s Child Welfare Services Case Management System (CWS/CMS). The sample includes 13,835 adolescents (ages 12+) who turned 18 between 2020 and 2022 and exited to reunification, guardianship, or adoption after spending at least one week in child welfare- or probation-supervised foster care after their 12th birthday. Descriptive analyses, chi-square tests, and multivariate logistic regressions were conducted to examine reentry prevalence and associated factors.
Results
We found 16.8% of our sample reentered foster care, with significant variation by race/ethnicity (χ² = 123.54, p < .001). Black adolescents had the highest reentry rate (23.7%) whereas 14.3% of White adolescents reentered. Reentry was more likely for adolescents with a history of behavioral health issues (22.1%; χ² = 43.96, p < .001) and those who first entered care during early childhood (20.7%; χ² = 35.10, p < .001) in comparison to middle childhood or adolescence. Placement instability was associated with an increased likelihood of reentry (adolescents with over two placements per year; 20.6%; χ² = 114.32, p < .001). Those with a history of congregate care (25.4%; χ² = 292.36, p < .001), commercial sexual exploitation (25.5%; χ² = 31.78, p < .001), or runaway episodes (26.8%; χ² = 61.80, p < .001) were more likely to reenter. Exit type also influenced reentry (X² = 181.25, p < .001), with adoption being the most stable exit (7.0% reentry), followed by guardianship (15.2%), and reunification (19.3%). The logistic regression model (Pseudo R² = 0.0851, p < 0.001) confirmed these trends, showing adolescents who exit through reunification (OR = 2.76, p < 0.001) or guardianship (OR = 2.66, p < 0.001) face significantly higher odds of reentry than who were adopted.
Conclusions
Findings highlight that reentry risk varies by demographic factors, placement history, and permanency exit type. The constellation of risk factors suggests the need for services that support adolescents and their caregivers before and after achieving permanency. Evidence-based behavioral health interventions while adolescents are in care and post-permanency services and supports (e.g., subsidies, behavioral health services) for those exiting to reunification or guardianship may be especially helpful. Further research is needed to evaluate interventions that prevent reentry, particularly for adolescents with behavioral health or placement instability histories.