Trajectories of Childhood Housing Insecurity and Links to Emerging Adulthood Depression: A Repeated Measures Latent Class Approach

Background and Purpose: Emerging adulthood is a high-risk period for depression. Childhood housing insecurity is an established risk factor for subsequent depression, but little research examines this relationship from childhood into emerging adulthood. The diverse and dynamic nature of housing insecurity experiences among families with children require a person-centered approach to more closely probe the link with depression in the transition to adulthood. The present study investigated the following research questions: 1) Are there distinct subtypes of childhood housing trajectories from infancy to adolescence? and 2) Are childhood housing trajectories associated with differential risk for depression in emerging adulthood?

Methods: Data came from the Future of Families and Child Well-being Study (FFCW), a national longitudinal survey that followed families with children from birth through age 22. The analytic sample was limited to families in which children lived with a biological parent at least half the time at ages 1, 3, 5, 9, and 15 and who participated in the Year 22 follow-up (N = 2,239). Housing insecurity was measured as a latent construct using repeated indicators of housing hardship at Years 1-15. Parents reported whether they had experienced a missed rent or mortgage payment, eviction, doubling up, or homelessness in the previous 12 months. Responses (1 = yes, 0 = no) were summed at each wave such that higher scores indicated more instances of housing insecurity. Emerging adulthood depression was measured at the Year 22 interview using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Short Form (CIDI-SF).

Repeated measures latent class analysis with auxiliary variables identified trajectories of housing insecurity experiences from age 1 to age 15, as well as differential risk for age 22 depression across classes. Missing data were handled with multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE).

Results: The first and largest class (75.4%), “Low Housing Insecurity,” included youth who experienced little to no incidences of housing hardship during childhood. The second class (5.4%), “Early Childhood Housing Insecurity,” displayed comparatively elevated risk for at least one housing hardship in Years 1-5 that declined to near-zero in later waves. The third class, “Moderate Increasing Housing Insecurity” (16.6%), was characterized by consistent moderate risk for housing insecurity with a slight uptick in later waves. The fourth and smallest class, “High Declining Housing Insecurity” (2.6%), experienced the highest levels of housing insecurity, with a 100% probability of experiencing any housing hardship at Year 1; nonetheless, the likelihood of experiencing two or more housing hardships at a single wave declined from over 60% at Year 1 to 23% at Year 15.

Youth in the “High but Declining Housing Insecurity” displayed a significantly higher probability for age 22 depression (68%) compared to the “Low” and “Moderate” housing insecurity classes (38% and 36% respectively).

Conclusions and Implications: Early and severe childhood housing insecurity is associated with increased risk for depression in emerging adulthood. Policies that support low-income families with young children offer promise to reduce the long-term burden of mental disorder. Social workers should advocate for affordable housing and broader tenant protections that keep families housed.