The Short Game and Long Game: First-Year and Four-Year Community College Outcomes for Youth with Experience in Foster Care

Background: The majority of youth with experience in foster care (YEFC) who enter higher education enroll in two-year colleges (Havlicek et al., 2021; Okpych et al., 2022). However, most research to date has focused on the experiences and outcomes of YEFC in four-year colleges and universities (Okpych, 2021). Moreover, some YEFC enroll in community colleges to earn vocational certificates, not associate’s degrees, but few studies have examined completion of vocational certificates. The current study addresses this gap by examining community college outcomes for several cohorts of first-time YEFC who enrolled in California community colleges. Since about one-in-eight YEFC in the U.S. reside in California, and since over 80% of California YEFC who enter postsecondary education go to community colleges (Okpych et al., 2022), California community colleges are an important study site.

Methods: Our study analyzes state child welfare administrative data linked to California Community College Chancellor’s Office (CCCCO) data. The sample includes all youth in California foster care on or after their 13th birthday between January 2004 and September 2016 and who were at least 21 years old at the time community college data were obtained in September 2024 (n = 137,720). First, we estimate the percentage of YEFC who enroll in community college by their 21st birthday or later. Second, we compare college graduation rates for enrolled YEFC versus the population of all California community college students. Third, we report information on several first-year college outcomes (e.g., course taking, GPA, persistence) and four-year outcomes (e.g., cumulative GPA and rates of vocational certificate and associate degree completion).

Results: We find that more than half of YEFC (54.2%) enrolled in one of the 114 California community colleges, however, 2.0% only enrolled as high school students and 12.6% completed matriculation but never took any classes. Of the remaining 39.6% of YEFC who enrolled in at least one course, we find the award completion rate to be about 2.5 times lower for YEFC than for all community college students (e.g., 8% vs. 19% for the 2018 student cohort). In their first year, YEFC took an average of 5.4 courses and had an average GPA of 1.43. Just 36.5% earned a GPA of 2.0 or above and 42.0% persisted through their first two primary terms. Among YEFC who enrolled beyond their first year, their average cumulative GPA was 1.68, 1.4% earned a vocational certificate, and 8.2% completed an associate’s degree.

Conclusions and Implications: To our knowledge, this is the first study to link CCCCO data to the entire population of youth in California foster care. The number of YEFC enrolled in community college has steadily increased over the years, from about 8,800 in 2012 to over 12,400 in 2018. This increase likely reflects the culmination of several California initiatives to increase postsecondary enrollment. However, the relatively low GPAs and completion rates should give administrators and advocates pause. Targeted, tailored services for YEFC are needed to promote academic success, especially in the first year when many students struggle and drop out.