Trends and Re-Referral Trajectories Among Screened-out Children: Evidence from State Administrative Data, 2021-2023

Background and Purpose: Nationally, over half of a year’s calls to child abuse hotlines are screened out, meaning they were not eligible for any formal intervention by Child Protective Service Agencies (CPS). However, research suggests that a proportion of families who are involved in a screened-out report are eventually re-reported and investigated. Scholars suggest that a screened-out report may indicate an early intervention point to support families before their circumstances exacerbate and require formal CPS intervention. Therefore, understanding the trajectories and trends involving families who are reported and screened out is critical to determining how to best intervene and prevent further system involvement. However, there are several challenges with understanding the trajectories of screened out families due to data limitations. For example, states do not consistently track screened out data across the board and screened out data is not generally publicly available. We present analyses generated by a state partnership providing sufficiently complete data to analyze the trajectories of families who are reported and screened out.

Methods: This study utilized child welfare state administrative data to provide an overview of state screened out trends and future system involvement trajectories. The study included 42,330 children with a first-time screened out CPS report from 2021-2023. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted. Bivariate analyses examined the association of child, family, case, and community characteristics and re-referral status across different definitions and over time. Finally, multivariate analyses consisted of logistic regression analysis to further understand those relationships.

Results: Univariate analyses demonstrated the relative completeness of the state’s child welfare data. The bivariate analysis provided evidence that the population of screened out children became more racially/ethnically diverse from 2021 to 2023: the percentage of Black and White children declined during this period, while the percentage of Hispanic or Latino and Multiracial children increased. The percentage of school-aged children and older youth screened out also increased during this time period, with the percentage of 0-1s and 2-4s decreasing. Re-referral rates were highest among American Indian or Alaskan Native children, followed by White children, Multiracial children, and Black children. Hispanic and Asian children had the lowest re-referral rates. Reports from non-Parent relatives had the highest re-referral rates, followed by reports from parents. Reports from friends/neighbors and especially child daycare providers had the lowest re-referral rates. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that youngest children had the highest probability of re-referral, with probabilities declining with age. Differences in the probabilities of re-rereferral were smaller across racial/ethnic groups than age groups. Finally, there was important variation in the probability of re-referral across a child’s county of residence.

Conclusions and Implications: This study represents one of the most recent studies exploring the trends and trajectories of screened out reports. This study advances academic and practical understanding of the screened-out population by qualifying and quantifying screened-out reports in a state. By demonstrating how and when the volume of screened-out referral changed, and tracing variation in the probability of re-referral, our study illuminates pathways to reduce formal CPS interventions.