Structural Adversity and Justice System Persistence: The Role of Early Detention, Delinquency, and Family-Level Risk Factors

Background and Purpose

Justice system involvement during adolescence can have long-lasting effects on well-being and life outcomes. Yet we know less about how early experiences—such as juvenile detention and family adversity—shape pathways to adult justice system contact. This study examines whether youth who experienced detention or delinquency by age 15 are at increased risk of juvenile or adult justice system involvement by age 22, and whether cumulative family-level risk factors compound this trajectory. Findings offer critical insight for community-centered reforms that aim to reduce intergenerational cycles of disadvantage, incarceration, and structural marginalization.

Methods

Data come from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS), a longitudinal cohort of nearly 5,000 children born in U.S. cities between 1998–2000. We analyze 1,479 youth with complete data at Years 15 and 22. Outcomes include three binary indicators: (1) any juvenile justice involvement before 18, (2) any adult justice involvement after 18, and (3) any justice contact (combined). Key predictors include Year 15 youth-reported delinquency and juvenile detention, plus cumulative family-level risk: father incarceration, total family structure changes, father absence, and material hardship. Logistic regression models control for youth gender, race/ethnicity, maternal education, health, poverty level, substance abuse, and U.S. birth status.

Results

At Year 22, 14.1% of young adults reported some form of justice involvement; 7.6% involved in juvenile justice only, 10% in adult justice only. Youth detained by age 15 showed significantly elevated risks:
- 9 times more likely to report juvenile justice involvement (OR = 2.19, p < .001)
- 4.1 times more likely to report any justice involvement (OR = 1.41, p < .001)

Higher delinquency scores at age 15 predicted 20% greater likelihood of later justice contact (OR = 1.20, p < .001). Paternal incarceration (OR = 1.67, p < .001) and each additional family structure change (OR = 1.28, p = .008) independently increased risk. Male youth were over twice as likely as females to experience system involvement (p < .001). These patterns point to persistent structural inequities that shape carceral trajectories over time.

Conclusions and Implications

This study demonstrates that early detention and adolescent delinquency predict continued justice system involvement into early adulthood, particularly when compounded by cumulative family disadvantage. Three key implications emerge:

- Practice: Trauma-informed, community-based alternatives to detention should be prioritized to address contextual family and environmental risks, especially for youth exposed to chronic poverty, instability, or paternal incarceration.

- Policy: Investments in structural supports (e.g., affordable housing, reentry programs, youth mental health services) must accompany efforts to reform systemic bias and reduce racialized pathways into the justice system.

- Research: Future work should identify protective factors that buffer against carceral pathways for marginalized youth and examine how early prevention efforts may interrupt these trajectories.

By centering structural solutions over individual blame, these findings call for paradigm shifts in justice reform that confront root causes of inequality while promoting youth resilience, dignity, and opportunity. Aligning research with practice and policy is essential to achieving long-term change.