Generational Barriers and the Rising Costs of Upward Mobility: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Background and Purpose:
Upward social mobility remains a pressing priority in American society, but ongoing structural barriers—including wage stagnation, high housing and education expenses, and limited social support—undermine this principle and disproportionately burden marginalized groups. Understanding these obstacles is critical because diminished mobility not only perpetuates economic disparities but also undermines long-standing beliefs about equal opportunity. Existing research has established that intergenerational income mobility in the U.S. is lower than in many comparable nations. It was estimated that the intergenerational elasticity ranged from 0.4 to 0.6 which was believed to be a substantial continuity of economic status across generations. Moreover, mobility appears to have declined around 1980, in tandem with growing wealth inequality and increasing returns to education. While these studies suggest that younger cohorts face additional burdens in attaining mobility, less is known about how shifting economic conditions intersect with individual life stages and broader historical trends. In particular, the distinct roles of age, period, and cohort in shaping the rising costs of upward mobility remain underexplored. This research investigates the interplay between generational changes and structural barriers to socioeconomic advancement.

Methods:
Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data and the hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) modeling, this study was designed to isolate and assess the distinct impacts of age, historical context (period), and generational influences (cohort). The PSID longitudinal data provides a rich array of information on income, occupation, education expenses, housing affordability, wealth accumulation, and social safety net utilization. The key outcome is a composite measure representing the cost of upward mobility, including wage stagnation relative to parents' income, educational debt burdens, housing affordability challenges, and reliance on social safety nets.

Results:
The results suggest significant period and cohort effects indicating increased costs and barriers for more recent generations. Specifically, younger cohorts are expected to exhibit higher educational debts, more significant struggles with housing affordability, and increased reliance on social safety net services compared to older cohorts. Additionally, interaction effects are anticipated, suggesting that individuals from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds experience disproportionately higher mobility costs, further highlighting systemic inequalities.

Conclusions and Implications:
This study provides critical evidence of temporal dynamics shaping socioeconomic mobility in the U.S. and the rising structural barriers across generations. The distinct impact of cohort effects implies that generational experiences significantly influence one's capacity to achieve upward mobility. These insights have substantial implications for social work practice and policy, recognizing the need for targeted interventions and advocacy efforts to alleviate socioeconomic burdens and how varied demographic groups experience and manage these growing financial pressures. Overall, this study contributes evidence-based recommendations aimed at enhancing equitable socioeconomic opportunities and promoting inclusive, achievable pathways for upward mobility.