The Impact of Fair Chance Housing Ordinances on the Housing Outcomes of People with Past Convictions

Background and Purpose:

In the last several years, policy, advocacy, and social justice efforts have actively sought ways to alleviate the collateral consequences of the carceral system and to help uplift people involved in the criminal legal system. Much research has shown that housing outcomes are precarious among those with past convictions as a direct result of criminal legal system involvement. In response to this, Fair Chance Housing (FCH) ordinances have proliferated across the nation to expand housing outcomes for people with a history of criminal legal system involvement. No research to date has specifically investigated the impact of these ordinances on housing outcomes. This study contributes to research on FCH policies by analyzing if these policies are effective in promoting housing stability among people involved in the criminal-legal system.

Methods:

FCH ordinances currently exist in 11 cities, 2 counties, and 2 states, each with varying time periods of implementation. The variation in enactment dates allows for the identification of the causal effects of these policies on housing outcomes. To assess this impact, I employed a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) design using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) 1997, a nationally representative collection of 21 rounds of surveys conducted among 8,984 participants from 1997 to 2021. Specifically, I estimated the difference in housing outcomes for individuals with and without convictions in treatment areas before and after enacting FCH policies. All available data before and after each jurisdiction’s enactment of a FCH ordinance were included in the analysis. I then estimated the corresponding difference in housing outcomes for the general population in comparison areas, allowing for an assessment of the policy's broader effects. Comparison areas were identified through propensity score matching using 2020 Census data.

Findings:

Among people with past convictions, Fair Chance Housing (FCH) ordinances were associated with a non-significant decline of 0.84 units in renting outcomes compared to the comparison group (p = 0.35, CI [-2.68, 1.00]). For homeownership, the estimated effect was a non-significant increase of 1.36 units (p = 0.41, CI [-1.97, 4.68]), while for those who neither owned nor rented, the estimated decline was -0.32 units (p = 0.23, CI [-0.85, 0.22]). Although the direction of effects varied across outcomes, none of the interaction terms reached statistical significance. These findings do not support the hypothesis that FCH ordinances improved housing outcomes for people with past convictions.

Conclusion and Implications:

Findings suggest that FCH ordinances may not be sufficient on their own to improve housing outcomes for people with past convictions. The lack of statistically significant effects points to potential limitations in policy enforcement, awareness, or scope. Policymakers and advocates should consider complementary strategies, such as stronger enforcement mechanisms, landlord accountability measures, and supportive housing programs, to ensure equitable access to housing for system-impacted populations. Future research should also explore racialized implementation and long-term outcomes of FCH policies to assess their effectiveness more holistically.