Method: This study used logistic regression to analyze permanency outcomes for 23 entry cohorts of children from 1985 to 2007 (N=185,382). Permanency outcomes were evaluated at three and six years post foster care entry. Separate models were run for: (1) any type of permanency vs. long term foster care (LTFC); (2) reunification vs. LTFC, adoption or guardianship; and (3) adoption or guardianship vs. LTFC (with reunification removed from the model). Models included race, kinship care, and interaction terms. Control variables included region, age, gender, and foster care stability. Graphical representations of odds ratios across time were used to identify linear and nonlinear trends in permanency outcomes.
Results: Throughout the period, African American children placed with kin were less likely than other children to attain permanency. However, since 1997 when the policy initiatives were first implemented in Illinois, the odds of attaining permanency for African American children placed with kin have had a dramatic linear increase. While this increase has been more dramatic for adoptions and exits to subsidized guardianship, the odds of reunification have also increased. For example, in 1986, the odds for adoption or guardianship for African American children within three years was just .146 when compared to White children in non-kin placements. Additionally the odds for reunification in 1986 for African American children in kinship care were .403. By 2005, the odds had increased to .730 for adoption or guardianship and .734 for reunification, relative to white children in non-kin homes.
Implications: This research shows that initiatives to increase permanency for children living in Illinois have increased not only adoption and guardianship rates, but also the odds of reunification among African American children in kinship homes. These findings are particularly encouraging given the recent implementation of similar initiatives nationally, as they suggest that these initiatives could potentially improve permanency outcomes among a group traditionally at high risk for longterm foster care.