The Impact of Perceptions of Success: Juvenile Reoffending in the Pathways to Desistance Study

Background and Purpose:  To effectively design interventions and policies that support juvenile offenders in becoming productive citizens, it is important to understand factors that influence the trajectories of their offending from adolescence to adulthood. Opportunities to succeed is one protective factor that reduces the risk of youth becoming involved in serious delinquency. This study assessed the impact of perceptions of success on reoffending among minority youth. Research questions included: (1) Does youth perception of opportunities for future success impact reoffending? (2) Do demographics such as minority status impact reoffending rates? We hypothesized adjudicated youths’ perceptions of opportunities for success would lower reoffending rates. We also hypothesized that minority status would impact reoffending rates.

Methods: We analyzed data from the Research on Pathways to Desistance to answer these questions. Between the years 2000 and 2010, the Pathways study followed 1,354 serious juvenile offenders in two locales. Youth were interviewed at baseline and then participated in follow-up interviews for a period of seven years. Multilevel model analyses were used to understand the impact of protective factors on desistance with time nested within individuals. The level one outcome variable was individuals’ self-reported offending score at baseline, 6-month, 12-month, and 18-month follow ups. Level two independent variables included ethnicity truncated into two groups (i.e., minority, n = 1080, and nonminority, n= 274) and “motivation to succeed” scores at baseline. Motivation to succeed (MTS) was defined as participants’ assessment of opportunities available to youth to succeed in school or neighborhood work opportunities. Higher scores indicate more optimism.  

Results:  A significant main effect was observed for MTS on offending (p < .001), such that perceptions of opportunities for future success impacted offending. Interpreting this result in the context of the interaction between MTS and time reveals that individuals who had a lower initial MTS relative to those with higher initial scores experienced greater decreases in offending over time (p < .01). Another significant main effect was observed for minority status (p < .001), such that minority youth relative to nonminority youth experienced significant increases in offending. In support of our hypothesis, we found that minority status significantly impacted juvenile reoffending over time (p < .01), such that nonminorities experienced greater decreases in offending compared to minorities.

Conclusions and Implications:  Findings indicate that youths’ initial perceptions of having opportunities to succeed influence their reoffending trajectories over time. Relatedly, minority status impacts reoffending rates. Considered together, these findings suggest minorities who perceive they have fewer opportunities to succeed may be at greater risk for entering the juvenile justice system. Alternatively, interventions and policies designed to support juvenile offenders in becoming productive citizens and that focus on youth perceptions of opportunities to succeed may increase their motivation and ultimately curtail reoffending.