Post-Permanency Discontinuity: A Longitudinal Examination of Outcomes Post Adoption or Guardianship

Background and Purpose:Between 2000 and 2013, the number of children in foster care decreased by about half (290,000 v. 159,000), while the number of children in adoptive homes nearly doubled (228,000 v. 432,000). This was largely a result of federal policies that emphasized the movement of children out of foster care and into legal permanence where it was presumed that they would live ‘happily ever after.’ However, little is known about the well-being of children after legal permanence is achieved.

To address this gap in the literature, this study analyzed administrative data to examine the long-term stability of post-adoption and guardianship placements. Study findings addressed some key concerns that advocates have raised about the permanency reforms that states implemented in the late 1990s, and provided insight into the longitudinal post-permanency experiences of former foster children.

Methods: Using data obtained from one state-wide child welfare agency, this study examined long-term outcomes for a population of former foster children (N=57,610) who exited state care through adoption or guardianship between 1995 and 2010. Unlike most previous post-permanency studies that tracked children for just a few years after legal permanence, this study tracked children for a minimum of ten years, or to the age of majority. Survival analysis was used to examine pre-permanency factors associated with post-permanency placement changes, or “discontinuity”.

Results:Descriptive analyses showed that 13% of children experienced post-permanency discontinuity. Children who experienced discontinuity were, on average 13.2 years old. Multivariate survival analyses indicated that, controlling for child’s race, children finalized as infants (less than 3 years old) or as teenagers (over 12) were approximately 40% less likely to experience discontinuity (HR=.57; 95% CI [.51, .64] and HR=.60; 95% CI [.56, .65] respectively, compared to children who finalized between the ages of 6 and 8 years old. Children who experienced three or more moves in foster care were more likely HR=1.22; 95% CI [1.15, 1.29]; and children who spent long periods of time in foster care (three or more years) were less likely, HR=0.842; 95% CI [.78, .91] to experience discontinuity.

Conclusions:   This population-based examination of long-term outcomes for children who exited foster care to adoption or guardianship identified several child and service characteristics that could be targeted for selective prevention intervention efforts to prevent placement discontinuity. Given the recent changes in federal policy and attention to the long-term outcomes for former foster children in adoption or guardianship, this study has several policy and practice implications. First, findings suggest that children in adoptive and guardianship homes experience lower placement instability than is commonly feared by many practitioners and policy-makers. In addition, results suggest that: (1) Services and supports that are offered to families on the brink of difficulty are often provided too late and (2) Services and supports provided to post-permanency families should be preventative in nature, proactively identifying risk and protective factors and putting supports and services in place prior to the point when difficulties overwhelm the capacity of families to address them.