Background and Purpose
Research has consistently underscored that supports from high school staff members are a critical link in connecting underrepresented, and first-generation college students to good college options. While this information can empower counselors, teachers, and paraprofessionals to take on a different role in students’ lives, many are not comfortable with this task. Between the research evidence on the importance of college choice, the hesitation to overstep authority, and the lack of financial resources that make many programs cost prohibitive, it is a struggle for high schools and partner agencies to determine what their role should be in college decision process, and how to do it effectively. In this paper, we present a series of simulations that explore how low-cost, non-academic interventions compare to traditional academic intervention at improving college graduation rates for CPS students.
Methods
In this paper, we present the results of a series of statistical simulations to estimate the marginal effects of changes in the academic qualifications and college choices of high school graduates on their predicted probability of graduating from college. This builds on an emerging methodology for examining the impact of college choice on students’ later outcomes.
Data: This study utilizes Chicago Public Schools data (student- and school-level data) for all CPS graduates between 2003 and 2007 (N= 99,353), who enrolled in college. College attendance and graduation data were obtained from National Student Clearinghouse.
Simulations: For each simulation, we use hierarchical linear modeling to predict student’s expected probability of graduating from college given a set of parameters. We do so simulating four potential strategies for improving student outcomes: College Match Strategy, a hypothetical intervention in which all students are encouraged to attend a “match” college; College Choice Strategy, a hypothetical intervention in which all students are encouraged to avoid “underperforming” colleges; ACT Strategy, a hypothetical intervention in which all students are provided the supports necessary to raise their ACT by 2 points; and GPA Strategy, a hypothetical intervention in which all students are provided the supports necessary to raise their cumulative GPA by .4 grade points.
Results
In comparison to the traditional academic interventions focused on raising ACT and GPA, non-academic interventions had equal or greater impact on college graduation outcomes in our simulations. Employing a College Match Strategy led to a 5-point increase in four-year college graduation rate overall, with highly-qualified students having the greatest gains. Employing a College Choice Strategy led to an even greater result: an 8-point increase in four-year college graduation rate overall, with nearly equal gains for students across all academic qualifications.
Conclusions
These results suggest that college choice interventions can play a vital role in increasing higher education attainment for underrepresented students, especially when employed in tandem with traditional academic interventions. Importantly, these interventions have the potential to be less time-consuming and less resource intensive for families, schools, and external partner organizations.