Are Surprisingly Low Child Maltreatment Rates in Rural, Majority African-American Counties Related to Substantiation?

Background. Most investigations of racial disparities in child welfare focus on potential over-reach and consequent unnecessary involvement of African-American families.  Less attention has been devoted to the question of whether some communities may be underserved by child welfare services, resulting in unmet needs or inadequate formal help.  Potential community-based disparities are of particular importance in the U.S. South where rural counties with majority African-American populations face considerable challenges (Rastogi et al., 2011).  This study builds on recent work showing that, despite having a greater preponderance of child maltreatment risk factors, rural, majority African-American counties in the South had lower rates of child maltreatment reports and victimization compared to other southern counties.  As a step to explain the victimization rate disparity, this study addresses the question: Are child victimization rates in rural, majority African-American counties lower than other counties in the region because investigators in the counties are less likely to substantiate reports? 

Methods. The study involved cross-sectional analysis of county-level data.  Child maltreatment data were merged with data from the U.S. Census and other publicly-available sources for all of the 354 counties in four southern states.  The dependent variable was the child maltreatment substantiation rate.  Key independent variables included continuous measures of the county-level child poverty rate, percentage rural, and percentages African-American, white, and Latino, as well as a categorical variable distinguishing the 29 rural, majority African-American counties from other counties in the region.  Bivariate tests and multiple regression models were conducted to assess associations with the county-level substantiation rate.  Analyses were repeated for three years, 2012-2014. 

Results. The child maltreatment substantiation rate ranged from <.01% to 64%, with a mean of about 26% in each of the three years.  T-tests indicated that the mean substantiation rate in rural, majority African-American counties (26%) was nearly the same as that of other counties in the region.  Multiple regression models also showed that county racial composition, rurality, and child poverty rate were not associated with the substantiation rate.  Results showed that one of the states had consistently higher substantiation rates compared to the other three states in the study.   Results were consistent over the three years.  

Implications.  Findings show that lower child victimization rates in rural, majority African-American counties are not a function of the likelihood of substantiation.  The lower child victimization rates in theses counties seem to reflect lower maltreatment report rates.  Future research should investigate whether rural, majority African-American counties receive relatively fewer reports from professionals, community members, or both.  Policy feedback theory (Mettler & SoRelle, 2018) would suggest that residents of counties with a history of political marginalization, few resources, and inadequate or unhelpful responsiveness from public services would have low expectations of government services and low levels of trust in public authorities. Residents of rural, majority African-American counties in southern states, and possibly professionals, too, may be reluctant to file official maltreatment reports.  If so, children and families in some southern counties may not be receiving adequate or equitable responses from the formal child welfare system.