Using Conjunctive Methods to Explore Factors Associated with on-Time Grade Attainment Among High Risk Youth

Background and Purpose: Chronic truancy and grade retention are highly correlated. Grade retention is associated with poor academic achievement and eventual dropout. Students experiencing chronic truancy, who have also been retained, face a troubling academic future. Dropout is associated with negative outcomes including substance use, unemployment, poor health and incarceration. The purpose of this study is to use conjunctive methods to explore combinations of risk factors associated with on-time grade attainment among a subset of high- risk elementary students.

Methods: Students who completed a high-risk truancy intervention program in one state in 2004-2005 where matched to state Department of Education data in 2007-2008 to assess on-time grade attainment 3 years post intervention. The final sample consisted of 2,861 students of which approximately 59% were on time for their grade. Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations (CACC) was utilized to assess the probability of on time grade attainment. Through the CACC procedure, comparisons of dominant case profiles are used to advance our understanding of which combinations of individual characteristics, psychosocial risk factors, and service utilization best predict on-time grade attainment post truancy intervention.

Results: Comparisons of dominant case profiles revealed substantial contextual variability for all variables. Among all youth, the influence of race was largely dependent on gender with no distinctions between white and non-white females, but a 40% disparity in the likelihood of on-time grade attainment between white and non-white males. The influence of completed services is also dependent on truancy levels with service completion increasing the likelihood of on-time grade attainment only among youth with low truancy levels. The results also suggest psychosocial risk factors tend to co-occur and reduce the likelihood of academic progress. However, there are substantial distinctions in the influence of risk factors on academic progress, with the likelihood of progress being decreased by 6% among attention seeking youth and 34% among unmotivated youth. In contrast, there is a strong association between truancy and on-time grade completion that is robust across race and gender groups as evidenced by a 30-35% reduction in the likelihood of on-time grade attainment between youth with low and chronic levels of truancy.

Grade-specific analyses revealed that race in conjunction with chronic truancy severely attenuated the likelihood of progress. Psychosocial risk factors were not present among dominant case profiles for K-3^rd but are critical to predicting academic progress among 4^th - 5^th graders and aid in explaining racial disparities. Psychosocial risk factors are most likely to co-occur among non-white males and are associated with a 60% reduction in the likelihood of on time grade attainment.

Conclusion:

The link between race and academic success is dependent on gender, truancy and psychosocial risk factors for many students. Overall, levels of truancy continue to be a significant risk factor for on-time grade attainment post truancy intervention. As such, it is imperative that educators and practitioners not only offer culturally competent interventions, but also utilize client centered case management interventions to account for other risk factors such as gender, level of truancy and psychosocial issues.