Bailing out: Using Survival Analysis to Examine Intersectional Race and Gender Differences in the Length of Pretrial Detention

Background and Purpose: Over 400,000 women and men are detained in jail each day – unconvicted of any crime – because of a bail amount that they cannot afford. Powerless to pay for their freedom, many sit in jail for days, weeks, months, or years – waiting. The longer individuals remain in jail, the higher the likelihood that they will take a plea, be found guilty, have a longer sentence, and return to jail after release. Research remains unclear regarding how race and gender may impact the time one spends in jail before bailing out and the subsequent risks that are associated with it. This study tests for differences in how long white and non-white women and men remain in pretrial detention in an effort to gain a better understanding of the potential impact of the intersecting influences of one’s race and gender in this area of the legal system.

Methods: Data for this study came from official booking records for a county jail in the Deep South in 2017. Individuals’ race, gender, age, charge, whether bail was set, and the amount of bail were all recorded, including the date and time each individual was booked into the jail and released into the community. A Kaplan-Meiers survival analysis was used to examine the time it took for defendants to post bail; a survival curve was constructed to compare the number of hours for each defendant to bail out.

Results: The Log Rank test suggests that the difference between white and non-white women and men was highly significant (χ² = 23.53, p < 0.000). White men were more likely to bail out of jail more quickly than the other three groups, at twenty-four and forty-eight hours. Forty-five percent of white men left jail within twenty-four hours compared to 34% of white women, 30% of non-white men, and 29% of non-white women. Across all four groups, the majority of individuals posted bail within forty-eight hours. A higher percentage of white males (75%) bailed out at the forty-eight-hour mark compared to other groups. White women and non-white women and men showed roughly equal numbers of individuals posting bail, with between 57-59% making bail at the end of two days.

Conclusions and Implications: Being in jail has a detrimental and enduring impact on individuals’ lives, especially in the areas of employment, housing, finances, mental health, and family. Without bail as an insurmountable barrier for 76% of those detained in jail on a daily basis, these defendants would have the opportunity to return to their communities after arrest. This study’s findings provide additional support for the argument to eliminate the use of bail, as this mechanism serves to perpetuate an inequitable system for those already at a disadvantage because of their race and gender. No matter their actual guilt, those with means are rewarded with the ability to return home; and those without continue to pay, not for any proven illegal actions, but for their predetermined marginalized status.