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The Stockton pilot was the nation’s first guaranteed income (GI) experiment since the 1980s, providing 131 Stocktonians an unconditional $500 per month for two years. While prior research has demonstrated positive impacts of GI on health, financial, and overall well-being, many of these studies occurred outside the US, are dated, or lacked causality. With outcome data from SEED, we ask: how does GI impact income volatility and financial security, health and wellbeing, and agency over one’s future?
Methods:
We employed a mixed-methods RCT (QUANT + QUAL) with address-based random sampling. Recruitment mailers were sent to 4,200 households; 478 respondents were randomized to treatment (n=131) and control (n=200). Surveys were given at baseline, enrollment, and every six months thereafter, and measured financial wellbeing (CFPB Financial Wellbeing Scale), physical health (Short Form Health Survey 36 [SF-36]), and mental health (Kessler 10). Income volatility was measured with monthly SMS surveys. 50 participants participated in semi-structured interviews at three intervals.
Income volatility was calculated by the coefficient of variation. Between subjects effects of the CFPB Financial Wellbeing Scale, SF-36, and Kessler 10 were tested with ANCOVA holding baseline measures as control. Thematic analysis was used to capture network relationships and a grounded theory approach was used alongside value/affect coding to determine pathways on a latent level.
Findings:
Integrated data indicated that as scarcity dampens, individuals experienced an increase in their capacity for self-determination, risk-taking, and an expansion of time for relationships. GI was also associated with an ability to resist poor working conditions and to weather the socio-economic stressors of covid and wildfire season. Individuals in treatment had more liquidity to pay for unexpected expenses and liquidity was ‘pooled’ across fragile family networks. In year one and compared to the control group, the treatment group had less income volatility (t = 1.76, p = 0.039), greater ability to cover a $400 emergency with cash or a cash equivalent (F = 13.906, p = < 0.001), reduced anxiety and depression (F = 4.983, p = 0.027), and better physical and mental health in the following domains: pain (F = 4.724; p = 0.031); energy over fatigue (F = 7.505; p = 0.007); emotional wellbeing (F = 7.749, p = 0.006); role limitations due to emotional health (F = 7.052, p = 0.009); and physical functioning (F = 4.396, p = 0.037). In the pandemic year (2020-2021) of the study no negative or significant effects were found on the above measures other than better physical functioning for the treatment compared to control group (F = 0.491, p = 0.036). No significant findings were in the post-intervention observation.
Conclusion:
In normative economic conditions, these findings suggest a causal link between receipt of GI and positive health and financial outcomes. While these effects dissipated during the pandemic, it is noteworthy that no negative effects were observed. This, along with the recent launch of over 100 pilots across the country, indicates GI may soon be one additional piece of the US social safety net.