Permanence Begets Permanence: The Influence of Public Child Welfare Caseworker Stability in Supporting Successful Reunification

Background/Purpose: Child welfare caseworkers are important actors in shaping child outcomes for children placed in out-of-home care (OHC). During each OHC episode, caseworker actions influence the stability of child placements, their path toward permanency, and the timeliness of discharge from out-of-home care. While the decisions caseworkers make are largely based on factors related to the case and other organizational processes, individual socioemotional factors also play a role. The literature has long assumed that job dissatisfaction and intent to leave are associated with changes to a caseworker’s general case practice. However, there has been limited work to test this theory. This research seeks to fill that gap by considering the role caseworker turnover on permanency-related case outcomes.

Methods: This analysis considers discharge decisions, placement stability, and timeliness of discharge for 27,509 placement episodes that reached discharge during the analysis period. Permanency decisions associated with these placements were made by 1,926 unique child welfare professionals who began on or after January 1, 2006.

We examine the odds of reunification and the timeliness of discharge from OHC using logit models and deploy a linear regression to assess stability of placements throughout a single OHC episode, all as a function of the caseworkers’ timeline to departure and the total number of caseworkers involved. Analyses also include controls for case-related characteristics, caseworker demographics, and county/year fixed effects to account for unobserved variation across counties.

Results: The majority of OHC episodes included in this analysis discharged to reunification (n=17,429; 63.4%) and discharged from OHC within 15 months of removal (16,850; 61.3%). On average, each OHC episode included about 2.6 placements prior to discharge.

The odds of reunification are 35% higher when the caseworker is within 6 months of departure, and higher with each additional caseworker assigned to the case for episodes that are more than 6 months in length. The odds of timely discharge from OHC are lower as the caseworker nears departure; 28% lower when within 12 months of departure, 33% lower when within 6 months of departure, and 55% lower when within 1 month of departure. Further, the odds of timely discharge are 73% lower for each additional caseworker involved in the case prior to discharge.

Additionally, linear regression results indicate that the total number of placements in an OHC episode are 0.28 placements lower when the primary caseworker is within 6 months of departure at the time the child is discharged from OHC. However, for each additional caseworker assigned to the case, there are associated increases in the total number of placements, particularly for children in OHC for more than 18 months.

Conclusions and Implications: Our findings suggests that a caseworker’s timeline to departure influences their case-related decision-making, affecting the timeliness, stability, and type of permanency a child achieves. These results expand what we know about the consequences of turnover by highlighting how caseworker decisions influence child outcomes as they near departure from the field. This underscores the need for targeted retention strategies to help child welfare agencies maintain a quality, consistent workforce.