Method: Data were drawn from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS), a population-based survey of urban families. FFCWS followed a cohort of 4,898 children born between 1998 and 2000 in 20 large cities for fifteen years. This study used data from the fifteen-year follow-up interviews, which included pairs of teenagers and their PCGs (N=3,169). The dependent variable was a count of delinquent behaviors in the past 12 months reported by the youth. The primary independent variables were baseline marital status (married, cohabitation, single); and poverty level (in poverty, < twice the poverty thresholds, < three times the poverty thresholds, >= three times the poverty thresholds). Control variables included: the child’s gender (male, female) and race (White, African American, Hispanic/Latino, other, multi-racial); and the PCG’s education level, health status, substance abuse, and citizenship status at baseline. As preliminary analyses indicated overdispersion, we used negative binomial regression for the multivariable modeling.
Results: The overall model was statistically significant (LR chi2 (18) = 236.49, p<0.001). Both the PCG’s marital and economic status were significant predictors in the model after accounting for the effects of the control variables: youth whose PCGs were cohabitating (IRR=1.26, p<0.01) or single (IRR=1.22, p<0.05) had higher incidence rates of delinquent behaviors relative to youth whose PCGs were married. Economic status was inversely related to delinquency incidence rates; compared to families who were living in poverty, families with income up to three times the poverty threshold (IRR=0.80, p<0.05), and families with income equal to or more than three times the poverty threshold (IRR=0.66, P<0.001) were associated with a lower number of delinquent acts. Among the control variables, being male (IRR=1.55, p<0.001) and African American (IRR=1.20, P<0.05) were associated with a higher number of delinquent acts.
Conclusion: These results highlight the long-term impact of family structure and environment when the child was born on later behavior in adolescence. Parent’s marital status and economic circumstances predict delinquent behavior of the child 15 years later, corresponding to a need for early intervention for non-married families with economic hardships. The results also indicated clear racial and gender disparities in adolescent delinquent behaviors. Recommendations to prevent delinquent behaviors among adolescents in fragile families include providing non-married parents support to reduce economic stress and education to increase parenting skills. Social work programs targeting adolescents in schools and communities should allocate more resources to male, African American youths who come from fragile families.